The Republic of
Vanuatu, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) which gained independence from
Anglo- French rule in 1980, is a parliamentary democracy with a non-executive
presidency. The president, who serves a five-year term, is indirectly elected
by an electoral college comprised by the Parliament and the presidents of the
six provinces (Malampa, Penama, Sanma, Shefa, Tafea, Torba). The Parliament is
unicameral and it is composed of 52 members, directly elected for a four-year
term. The last parliamentary elections took place, peacefully and successfully
at the end of March 2020. In December 2020, the Government of Vanuatu (GoV) has
achieved the target of graduating from the Least Developed Country status, thus
concluding a journey which started in 1994, when the country first met two of
the three graduation criteria.
The 290 000
residents of the Republic of Vanuatu inhabit 72 out of 83 islands of the
archipelago, with 75 % of the population living in rural areas with communal
property rights over vast portions of fertile land (the village chiefs
distribute the land among the families and they cultivate it). Vanuatu is
experiencing high population growth, with the 2009 census showing a total
population of 234 023, an increase of 25.4 % from the population of 186 678
people in 1999. Vanuatu is rapidly urbanizing, with population growth in urban
areas (including provincial centres) nearly double that of rural areas.
Vanuatu is located
on the earthquake-prone “ring of fire” and sitting at the centre of the Pacific
cyclone belt and thus highly exposed to natural disasters (Tropical Cyclones:
Pam 2015, Donna 2017, Harold 2020, earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption Ambae
(2018), Yasur (2020). It has been ranked as the most at- risk country in the
world by the UN World Risk Index. Between 1950 and 2011, natural disasters were
responsible for an annualized loss equivalent to 6.6% of GDP in Vanuatu, the
highest figure in the Pacific.
Over the last
decade, Vanuatu has been one of the fastest growing economies in the Pacific
region, However benefits of economic growth have not spread equally across the
country. Relatively fast population growth has meant that average annual per
capita GDP growth has only been marginally positive over the past decade. After
recovery from the Cyclone Pam in March 2015, which caused damages equivalent to
64% of Vanuatu’s GDP, economy has grown above 3% annually.
Vanuatu's economy
has in the last decades shifted gradually from primary sector to services. The
latter now accounts for about 70% of GDP (with tourism playing a dominant
role), whilst primary sectors jointly contribute to around 22% of GDP
(subsistence agriculture, which provides a living for 70% of the population but
contributes only 19% of the GDP). The industry sector represents about 10% of
GDP, mainly driven by construction. Meanwhile, agri-business manufacturing has
a high potential but is not yet sufficiently structured. The primary sector
still provides employment to about 63% of the population, followed by services
(29%) and industry (7%).
The 11th EDF
bilateral cooperation is building on the achievements made and further focus on
rural development. It is aligned with Vanuatu's National Sustainable
Development Plan for the period 2016-2030 ("Vanuatu 2030 – the People's
Plan") and related strategies, policies and plans, such as the Trade
Policy Framework (TPF) or the Overarching Productive Sector Policy (OPSP). The
TPF and OPSP are policies supported by the Budget Support Sector Reform
Contract (SRC) Vanuatu Value Chain (VaVaC) Programme.
The National
Sustainable Development Plan - "Vanuatu 2030 – the People's Plan"
(NSDP)1 charts the country's vision and overarching policy framework for
achieving a “Stable, Sustainable and Prosperous Vanuatu’ by 2030. The NSDP
fully integrates the Agenda 2030 via its Monitoring & Evaluation Framework,
which links the NSDP indicators to SDG indicators. In July 2019, Vanuatu
reported at the UN High-Level Political Forum the progress made on several key
Sustainable Development Goals through its first Voluntary National Review2,
which is based on the implementation of the NSDP. Implementation progress is
also monitored via Annual Development Reports.
The NSDP seeks to
balance the social, environmental and economic pillars of sustainable
development and centres on Vanuatu's cultural heritage as the foundation for an
inclusive society. The NSDP has 15 Goals and 98 Policy Objectives. The NSDP is
composed of three pillars: as: 1) Society Pillar: A vibrant cultural identity
underpinning a peaceful, just and inclusive society; Supported by responsive
and capable state institutions delivering quality public services, including
health and education, to all citizens; 2) Environment Pillar: Maintaining a
pristine natural environment on land and at sea that serves our food, cultural,
economic and ecological needs; With enhanced resilience and adaptive capacity
to climate change and natural disasters; and; 3) Economy Pillar: A stable
economy based on equitable, sustainable growth that creates jobs and income
earning opportunities accessible to all people in rural and urban areas.
The Vanuatu Value
Chain (VaVaC) Programme is closely aligned with the third part of the economy
pillar namely “strengthen rural communities” and, in particular, with the
specific objectives:
• ECO 3.1: Promote
broad based growth by strengthening linkages between
tourism, infrastructure,
agriculture and industry in rural areas
• ECO 3.3: Improve
access to markets through quality infrastructure, utilities, storage and
processing facilities in rural areas
• ECO 3.4: Increase
primary sector production
• ECO 3.5 Improve
the collection, analysis and dissemination of market data on the rural economy
and communities.
This programme is
relevant for the Agenda 2030. It contributes primarily to the progressive
achievement of SDG Goal 2 - Zero Hunger, but also promotes progress towards
Goals 5 - Gender Equality, 8 – Decent work and economic growth, and 13 –
Climate Action. This does not imply a commitment by the country benefiting from
this programme.
Systematic and
timely evaluation of its programmes and activities is an established priority12
of the European Commission13. The focus of evaluations is on the assessment of
achievements, the quality and the results14 of Budget Support programmes in the
context of an evolving cooperation policy with an increasing emphasis on
result-oriented approaches and the contribution towards the implementation of
the Sustainable Development Goals.15
From this
perspective, evaluations should look for evidence of why, whether or how these
results are linked to the EU intervention and seek to identify the factors
driving or hindering progress.
The main objectives
of this evaluation are to provide the relevant services of the European Union,
the interested stakeholders and the wider public with:
- an
overall independent assessment of the past performance of the Vanuatu Value
Chain Programme, paying particular attention to its intermediate results
measured against its expected objectives; and the reasons underpinning such
results;
-
key lessons learned, conclusions and related recommendations in order to
improve current and future Budget Support programmes.
In particular, this
evaluation aims at assessing:
1. to what extent
the Vanuatu Value Chain Programme has achieved its expected results, notably
through contributing to the implementation of the partner government's sector
strategies the Trade Policy Framework Update 2019-2025 and the Overarching
Productive Sector Policy 2020- 2030 by providing opportunities for the
improvement of national policy processes and policy implementation.
2. The evaluation
should also specifically analyse how the Budget Support programme (combined
with complementary initiatives such the 11th EDF Strengthening Public Finance
Management (PFM) and Governance in the Pacific project) has contributed (or
not) to strengthen Public Financial Management (PFM) systems, including
improved transparency within government systems, improved Domestic Revenues
Mobilisation and stronger accountability.
3.The evaluation
will also pay attention to other aid modalities (basket/common funds,
projects), in order to assess the complementarity and synergy (or discrepancy)
of these modalities with Budget Support.
4.It should also
assess the effects of the Budget Support operation on the M&E systems in
the sectors supported by the programme. Budget support should aim to strengthen
the monitoring systems in the sectors it supports, in alignment with the
existing national level monitoring and evaluation systems and contribute to the
improved availability and credibility of data. Availability of the robust
progress reports by the government, providing results information against
targets set under the strategy, and the use of these reports to facilitate
informed policy dialogue between the different stakeholders (CSOs, private
sector, Parliament, donors) and evidence-based decision making is one indicator
of the capacity of the government in the area of M&E.
The evaluation will
take stock of what has been achieved with the main purpose to allow for lessons
learnt and recommendations to inform on:
• the conditions
under which Budget Support has an effect (or not) and the possible intensity
and nature (positive or negative) of such effect in Vanuatu;
• the design and
implementation of future Budget Support operations in Vanuatu;
•improvements to be
set up by the European Union (or other Budget Support provider) to maximize the
impact of Budget Support in Vanuatu;
•constraints in
government policies (including costing and financing), institutional structures
and administrative arrangements in Vanuatu which might impede the effectiveness
of Budget Support on spending actions and targeted public policies and reforms
This evaluation is
taking place at this particular moment because it is envisaged by the Financing
Agreement and its addenda. It is also expected to inform the potential
formulation of the next Budget Support programme.
The main users of
this evaluation will be the EU Delegation for the Pacific and the relevant
units within the Directorate-General for International Partnerships (INTPA) of
the EU Commission (in particular the Unit C3 (East Asia and the Pacific), the
Budget Support Team for Asia-Pacific, the Unit E1 (Macro-economic Analysis,
Fiscal Policies and Budget Support) and the Unit F3 (Sustainable Agri-Food
systems and Fisheries)) and the Vanuatu Ministry for the Prime Minister, the
Vanuatu Ministry of Finance and Economic Management, the Vanuatu Ministry of
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fisheries and Biosecurity, the Vanuatu
Ministry of Tourism, Trade, Industry, Commerce and Ni-Vanuatu Business.